Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.782035 2.364868 3.159156 4.350356 6.145320e+00 8.842931e+00 1.339837e+01
2024-12-29 1.251309 1.898731 2.951114 4.897528 8.691248e+00 1.648894e+01 3.624360e+01
2025-01-05 0.918978 1.554161 2.751248 5.426226 1.214378e+01 3.164432e+01 1.153649e+02
2025-01-12 0.645906 1.184780 2.323350 5.295472 1.465274e+01 5.306575e+01 3.688559e+02
2025-01-19 0.457945 0.895077 1.907342 4.920098 1.656693e+01 8.471192e+01 1.404975e+03
2025-01-26 0.357774 0.746045 1.735442 5.135231 2.188842e+01 1.806303e+02 1.801744e+04
2025-02-02 0.300341 0.669746 1.711890 5.919507 3.386228e+01 5.794784e+02 1.122454e+09
2025-02-09 0.260573 0.620287 1.743828 7.125724 5.799360e+01 3.197191e+03 NaN
2025-02-16 0.218384 0.546318 1.655126 7.768231 8.774030e+01 2.436440e+04 NaN
2025-02-23 0.177562 0.459631 1.467873 7.628357 1.123431e+02 2.690735e+05 NaN
2025-03-02 0.143780 0.381670 1.268043 7.130482 1.310824e+02 1.203151e+07 NaN
2025-03-09 0.125715 0.346627 1.223735 7.801362 2.113027e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.109073 0.312033 1.170103 8.496392 3.631591e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.096497 0.286635 1.144731 9.582408 7.310468e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.085440 0.262420 1.109767 10.635988 1.563985e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.072696 0.227149 0.989756 10.205357 2.263204e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.061373 0.193754 0.859640 9.272261 2.715115e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.054528 0.175940 0.811347 9.657906 5.641084e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050432 0.167847 0.818538 11.302080 2.543371e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.047448 0.163356 0.847897 13.934167 4.003065e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.043406 0.152774 0.826449 15.326752 1.775223e+07 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.038679 0.137559 0.758955 14.934287 2.200937e+09 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.034173 0.122112 0.679848 13.751216 4.014249e+15 NaN NaN